Real daily vessel counts through the Strait of Hormuz (IMF PortWatch AIS data). More ships = trade flowing. Sudden drop = blockade/tension.

Where Gulf oil is actually arriving. If India drops but China is stable = India getting squeezed. If ALL drop = global supply crisis.

S&P 500 (your US exposure), NIFTY 50 (your India exposure), and Hormuz tanker stocks (oil shipping disruption proxy).

Oil prices drive India's import bill and global inflation. $60-80 = healthy. Above $100 = stress. Tanker spikes = Hormuz disruption.

VIX <15 = calm markets, >30 = fear/panic. Inverted yield curve = recession ahead. DXY up = strong dollar hurts emerging markets (India).

Gold rising = flight to safety. Defense stocks rising = conflict priced in. Both rising together = elevated geopolitical risk.